Hiv model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives

Esther Chigidi; Edward M. Lungu

doi:10.3934/mbe.2009.6.427

Hiv model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives

Esther Chigidi, Edward M. Lungu

Mathematics & Statistical Sciences

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Abstract

We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is R_c ≈ 1-3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of R_c ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	427-450
Number of pages	24
Journal	Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume	6
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2009.6.427
Publication status	Published - Jul 2009

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Computational Mathematics
Applied Mathematics
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Modelling and Simulation

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10.3934/mbe.2009.6.427

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abstract = "We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc ≈ 1-3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.",

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AB - We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc ≈ 1-3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

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Hiv model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives

Abstract

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