TY - GEN
T1 - SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts
AU - Tirivarombo, Sithabile
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.
AB - This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84944235813&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84944235813&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2316/P.2014.812-012
DO - 10.2316/P.2014.812-012
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84944235813
T3 - Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
SP - 51
EP - 58
BT - Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
A2 - Anderson, George O.
A2 - Mmopelwa, Gagoitseope
A2 - Tanko, Matthew N.
A2 - Ogwu, Francis J.
A2 - Seboni, Naomi M.
PB - ACTA Press
T2 - 5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
Y2 - 1 September 2014 through 3 September 2014
ER -
