SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts

Sithabile Tirivarombo

doi:10.2316/P.2014.812-012

SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts

Sithabile Tirivarombo

Earth & Environmental Sciences

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
Editors	George O. Anderson, Gagoitseope Mmopelwa, Matthew N. Tanko, Francis J. Ogwu, Naomi M. Seboni
Publisher	ACTA Press
Pages	51-58
Number of pages	8
ISBN (Electronic)	9780889869738
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2316/P.2014.812-012
Publication status	Published - 2014
Event	5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014 - Gaborone, Botswana Duration: Sept 1 2014 → Sept 3 2014

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014

Other

Other	5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
Country/Territory	Botswana
City	Gaborone
Period	9/1/14 → 9/3/14

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Environmental Engineering
Water Science and Technology

Access to Document

10.2316/P.2014.812-012

Cite this

Tirivarombo, S. (2014). SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. In G. O. Anderson, G. Mmopelwa, M. N. Tanko, F. J. Ogwu, & N. M. Seboni (Eds.), Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014 (pp. 51-58). (Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014). ACTA Press. https://doi.org/10.2316/P.2014.812-012

Tirivarombo, Sithabile. / SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. editor / George O. Anderson ; Gagoitseope Mmopelwa ; Matthew N. Tanko ; Francis J. Ogwu ; Naomi M. Seboni. ACTA Press, 2014. pp. 51-58 (Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014).

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title = "SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts",

abstract = "This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3\% to 12\%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.",

author = "Sithabile Tirivarombo",

year = "2014",

doi = "10.2316/P.2014.812-012",

language = "English",

series = "Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014",

publisher = "ACTA Press",

pages = "51--58",

editor = "Anderson, \{George O.\} and Gagoitseope Mmopelwa and Tanko, \{Matthew N.\} and Ogwu, \{Francis J.\} and Seboni, \{Naomi M.\}",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014",

address = "Canada",

note = "5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014 ; Conference date: 01-09-2014 Through 03-09-2014",

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Tirivarombo, S 2014, SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. in GO Anderson, G Mmopelwa, MN Tanko, FJ Ogwu & NM Seboni (eds), Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014, ACTA Press, pp. 51-58, 5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014, Gaborone, Botswana, 9/1/14. https://doi.org/10.2316/P.2014.812-012

SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. / Tirivarombo, Sithabile.
Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. ed. / George O. Anderson; Gagoitseope Mmopelwa; Matthew N. Tanko; Francis J. Ogwu; Naomi M. Seboni. ACTA Press, 2014. p. 51-58 (Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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T1 - SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts

AU - Tirivarombo, Sithabile

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.

AB - This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.

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BT - Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014

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Y2 - 1 September 2014 through 3 September 2014

ER -

Tirivarombo S. SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. In Anderson GO, Mmopelwa G, Tanko MN, Ogwu FJ, Seboni NM, editors, Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. ACTA Press. 2014. p. 51-58. (Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014). doi: 10.2316/P.2014.812-012

SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts

Abstract

Publication series

Other

UN SDGs

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Access to Document

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