TY - JOUR
T1 - The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days
T2 - a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries
AU - Adebowale, Ayo Stephen
AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi F.
AU - Akinyemi, Joshua O.
AU - Obisesan, Olalekan K.
AU - Awosanya, Emmanuel J.
AU - Afolabi, Rotimi F.
AU - Alarape, Selim A.
AU - Obabiyi, Sunday O.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control / WHO and the World Population Pyramid for granting free access to the data used for the study. Special thanks to Dr. Segun Bello for his insightful feedback and proofread on the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Background: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. Methods: Data was extracted from the World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. Conclusions: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.
AB - Background: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. Methods: Data was extracted from the World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. Conclusions: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099243660&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85099243660&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12889-020-10149-x
DO - 10.1186/s12889-020-10149-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 33435922
AN - SCOPUS:85099243660
SN - 1471-2458
VL - 21
JO - BMC Public Health
JF - BMC Public Health
IS - 1
M1 - 129
ER -
